Young QB Talents Collide in Falcons-Broncos Matchup

Football Betting Lines

11/14/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two of the NFL's rising stars at the quarterback position take center stage this Sunday at the Georgia Dome, where Matt Ryan leads the surging Atlanta Falcons into battle against Jay Cutler's Denver Broncos in an interconference clash between playoff hopefuls.

Atlanta has orchestrated one of this season's most dramatic turnarounds, thanks in no small part to the poise and skill the rookie Ryan has displayed as the team's starting signal-caller. In Denver, longtime head coach Mike Shanahan has ridden the rocket right arm of third-year pro Cutler to the top of a weakened AFC West division, where the 25-year-old's ability to light up the scoreboard has helped mask the Broncos' shortcomings in the running game and on defense.

Cutler was at his gunslinging best in Denver's most recent matchup, with the former first-round pick throwing for a career-best 447 yards and three fourth- quarter touchdown passes to fuel a stirring 34-30 comeback victory at Cleveland in Week 10. His final scoring toss of the night, an 11-yard strike to wide receiver Brandon Marshall with 1:14 left to play, accounted for the final margin.

The late rally enabled the previously-struggling Broncos to halt a three-game slide and kept the 5-4 club one game in front of underachieving San Diego for first place in the division standings.

Denver will likely be relying heavily on Cutler's talents again this week, as a flurry of recent injuries have left Shanahan's squad woefully thin at running back. Three of the Broncos' top ball-carriers have landed on injured reserve over the past two weeks, while second-leading rusher Selvin Young is still bothered by a lingering groin strain and may not be available for Sunday's test either.

Rookie fullback Peyton Hillis wound up getting the bulk of the rushing work during the second half of the Cleveland game out of necessity and stands a good chance to repeat those duties on Sunday. The situation is so dire that Shanahan brought back one-time Bronco Tatum Bell, who was cut loose by the winless Detroit Lions in the preseason, for a second tour of duty on Tuesday and figures to throw him right into the fire against the Falcons.

There's far less chaos on the Atlanta side heading into this weekend's meeting. The Falcons are flying high with a 6-3 record and victories in four of their last five games, while the nightmares of the previous year's four-win disaster have been replaced by visions of postseason participation. Atlanta currently sits just one game off Carolina's pace in the competitive NFC South and is tied with both Tampa Bay and Washington in the race for the conference's two Wild Card berths.

Ryan is a big reason for the team's meteoric rise, and the former Boston College star strengthened his candidacy for the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year award with another excellent performance in last Sunday's 34-20 home triumph over New Orleans. He compiled 248 yards and two touchdowns on 16-of-23 passing against the Saints and has yet to commit a turnover in any of the Falcons' four games at the Georgia Dome this year.

The Falcons are a perfect 4-0 at home thus far in 2008, with three of those wins coming by 13 points or more.

SERIES HISTORY

The Broncos hold a 7-4 edge in their all-time regular season series with Atlanta, but had a five-game winning streak in the series snapped with a 41-28 home loss when the teams last met, in 2004. Denver won the previous meeting, at home in 2000, and were 29-21 winners when last visiting Atlanta, in 1997. The Broncos are 3-0 in road games in the series since last losing in Atlanta in 1975.

In addition to the regular season series, Denver scored a 34-19 victory over Atlanta in Super Bowl XXXIII from South Florida.

Shanahan has a 3-2 overall mark against the Falcons all-time, including a loss while with the Raiders in 1988. Atlanta's Mike Smith will be meeting both Shanahan and the Broncos for the first time as a head coach.

WHEN THE BRONCOS HAVE THE BALL

Cutler (2616 passing yards, 18 TD, 11 INT) has attempted 88 passes over the last two games and Denver's lack of options at running back virtually ensures he's due for another heavy workload on Sunday. The Vanderbilt product has put up five 300-yard days in directing an offense that comes in ranked third in the NFL in passing yards (287.9 ypg) and boasts a wealth of outstanding pass- catchers. Wide receivers Marshall (57 receptions, 714 yards, 4 TD) and Eddie Royal (52 receptions, 625 yards, 4 TD) each average over six catches a game, while veteran Brandon Stokley (28 receptions, 2 TD) is one of the league's most accomplished slot men. The rookie Royal was a real difference-maker in last week's win, amassing a career-high 164 yards on six grabs and sparking the Broncos' rally with a 93-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter. Field-stretching tight end Tony Scheffler (20 receptions, 2 TD) had a big night as well, finishing with a season-best 92 yards on four receptions. Cutler's also been well protected by his team's media-shy offensive line, as the front wall has allowed a mere six sacks on the year.

Atlanta has stood its ground very well against enemy aerial attacks during its current two-game win streak, as the defense held the punchless Oakland Raiders to a paltry 10 net passing yards in a Week 9 shutout and intercepted Saints quarterback Drew Brees three times last Sunday. Sophomore Chris Houston (26 tackles, 2 INT, 7 PD) and ex-Bronco Domonique Foxworth (9 tackles, 5 PD) have been respectable at manning the cornerback spots, while offseason pickup Erik Coleman (52 tackles, 3 INT) has done a solid job as the team's center fielder. Up front, disruptive end John Abraham (24 tackles, 3 forced fumbles) is tied for second in the league with 11 sacks, a total made even more impressive considering he's the Falcons only legitimate pass-rushing threat. Eight of Cutler's 11 interceptions this season have come during Denver's four losses, so he'll need to exude caution against a secondary that has shown it can be opportunistic.

If the Broncos can come up with a healthy and capable running back, there's an opportunity for success against an Atlanta stop unit that is just 21st overall versus the rush (119.1 ypg) and is giving up an average of 4.9 yards per carry. The Falcons do have some sure tacklers with plenty of experience on defense, as weakside linebacker Keith Brooking (50 tackles) and strong safety Lawyer Milloy (52 tackles, 1 INT) have made a combined nine trips to the Pro Bowl over their lengthy careers. Rookie Curtis Lofton (53 tackles, 1 sack) has turned out to be a nice find at middle linebacker, but the line hasn't offered much resistance when teams decide to pound away.

With leading rusher Michael Pittman and promising rookie Ryan Torain each enduring season-ending injuries in the last two outings and Young (268 rushing yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions) doubtful to dress on Sunday, Shanahan may be pinning his hopes that Bell still has the speed and vision that made him gain 1,025 yards in Denver's patented zone-blocking scheme just two years ago. That's quite a roll of the dice, but with no viable alternatives other than recently signed ex-Panther Alex Haynes and the untested Hillis (69 rushing yards, 8 receptions, 1 TD), it's a gamble the innovative head coach could have to take. Hillis has shown his worth as a receiver out of the backfield, having piled up an eye-opening 116 yards on seven catches in a loss to Miami two weeks back.

WHEN THE FALCONS HAVE THE BALL

There's little guesswork as to what the Falcons game plan will be come Sunday. Atlanta has built its sparkling record on the strength of its dynamic backfield duo of the physical Michael Turner (890 rushing yards, 7 TD, 4 receptions) and blazer Jerious Norwood (365 rushing yards, 21 receptions, 3 total TD). The pair has flourished behind an unheralded front wall that has paved the way for the NFL's second-rated rushing attack (157.8 ypg) and made Ryan's transition to the pro game a seamless one. Turner is a 244-pound load who excels at wearing down a defense, while Norwood displayed his home-run hitting ability when he took a short Ryan pass 67 yards to paydirt in last week's win over New Orleans.

Turner and Norwood should have no problem keeping busy, considering the Broncos haven't been able to stop any team from running the ball down their throats this season and will have their entire starting linebacking corps unavailable this weekend due to injuries. Undrafted rookie Wesley Woodyard (15 tackles) had 10 solo tackles against the Browns while making his first career start in place of standout weakside starter D.J. Williams (77 tackles, 2.5 sacks), who's shelved with a knee sprain, while middle linebacker Nate Webster (64 tackles, 2 sacks) hurt his knee in the club's most recent tilt and will miss at least a couple of weeks. He'll be replaced by career special teamer Niko Koutouvides (9 tackles). Strongside starter Jamie Winborn (48 tackles, 0.5 sacks) made 13 stops (12 solo) in the Cleveland game and is the most experienced member of the makeshift trio. Denver ranks a lowly 28th against the run (146.3 ypg) and is yielding a subpar 5.1 yards per carry.

The Broncos haven't performed any better in defending the pass, having surrendered more than 240 yards per game (28th overall) and 14 touchdowns through the air (28th overall) so far. It hasn't helped matters that All-Pro cornerback Champ Bailey (28 tackles, 1 INT) has been inactive the last two weeks with a torn groin and opponents have routinely picked on replacement Karl Paymah (28 tackles, 1 INT). Bailey had been aiming for a return this week, but the prospects of the Georgia native playing in his homecoming are looking rather bleak. Denver's tattered secondary will also be without veteran free safety Marlon McCree (29 tackles) for a second straight game due to a high ankle sprain. The pass rush has been sporadic as well, with athletic end Elvis Dumervil (14 tackles, 3 sacks) having suffered a noticeable dropoff from a 12-sack campaign in 2007.

Denver's defensive problems bode well for another banner day for Ryan (1909 passing yards, 11 TD, 5 INT), whose 125.2 passer rating in home games is the best mark in the NFL this season, and big-play wide receiver Roddy White (53 receptions, 801 yards, 6 TD), the unflappable young quarterback's unquestioned go-to guy. Fellow wideout Michael Jenkins (24 receptions, 3 TD) has stepped up his play as well lately after a slow start, with the inviting 6-foot-4 target following up a two-touchdown showing in Atlanta's Week 9 rout of Oakland by setting season-bests of six catches for 72 yards in the New Orleans win. The line will be minus regular left tackle Sam Baker (back surgery) for a fourth consecutive contest, but Ryan wasn't sacked at all by the Saints last Sunday.

FANTASY FOCUS

Owners of Turner and Norwood won't find a more dreamy scenario on Sunday, a date at home against a defense that's a sieve against the run. As the feature back, Turner's a no-brainer to use this week, while Norwood makes for an adequate play at the flex. Ryan has quietly emerged as a viable fantasy quarterback, especially when the Falcons are at home, and should be good for a productive day in a game that has the makings of a high-scoring affair. White gets a green light as well, but be cautious of any other Atlanta receiver. Also, keep an eye on the injury report if you own Falcons kicker Jason Elam. The longtime Bronco missed practice time this week with an ailing hip, but the accurate veteran is very usable if he's active. Cutler should have plenty of chances to put up points this week considering the state of Denver's running backs, and that puts Marshall, Royal and Scheffler in the must-start category. Bell is worth picking up off the waiver wire, but take a wait-and-see approach with the newly-signed running back for now.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Those who are still waiting for the Falcons to come down to earth from their improbable run of success are simply missing the boat. Atlanta has scored at least 34 points in three of its four games at the Georgia Dome this year, and a depleted Denver defense doesn't have the muscle to prevent the home team from lighting up the scoreboard like a pinball machine once again. Cutler and his strong cast of receivers will likely keep this contest very entertaining, but the Broncos can't stop anybody and have lost the turnover battle too often this season. That could signal doom for Shanahan's charges on Sunday.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Falcons 34, Broncos 24