11/06/2008 - McKinney, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Darron Stiles posted a seven-under 64 Thursday to take a one-shot lead after one round of the Nationwide Tour Championship.
Stiles, who stands No. 7 on the money list, is the only player in the top 10 on the money list that has not won this season.
Jeff Klauk, who is one spot behind Stiles on the money list, is one stroke behind the leader at the TPC Craig Ranch.
Spencer Levin and Garrett Osborn both opened with rounds of five-under 66. Osborn, No. 41 on the money list, needs no worse than a two-way tie for second this week to get into the top 25 on the money list and earn his PGA Tour card for next season.
This is the final event of the year, and players are battling to get into the top 25 on the money list. After one round, six of the top 16 players on the leaderboard are outside the top 25 on the money list.
Stiles had a steady, bogey-free round. He birdied the third and fifth to get his round going. After a birdie on the eighth, Stiles turned in minus-three.
Around the turn, birdies on 10 an 12 gave Stiles a share of the lead at minus- five. He took the lead with a birdie on the 14th before closing with a birdie at the last.
"There are still three more days, but it's nice to get out of the gate this well, especially this week," said Stiles, who played with Klauk in the first round. "It looks like we'll be paired together for round two and it would be nice to keep Florida Southern one-two for the rest of the week."
Klauk, like Stiles a Florida Southern graduate, dropped in back-to-back birdie efforts from the third. He also made the turn in minus-three after he birdied the ninth.
After parring the first five holes of the back nine, Klauk converted three straight birdie efforts from the 15th to get within one of the lead. He parred the final two holes to remain one back.
"I got it going early, then kind of stalled out there and then got it going there at the end. It was nice to finish well," said Klauk, who is guaranteed to finish inside the top 25 on the money list, earning his PGA Tour card for the first time.
"It's been seven years out here and I've been close a few times. The hard work is starting to pay off. Sunday, it will really sink in."
Bryce Molder, who is No. 32 on the money list, opened with a four-under 67. He was joined in a share of fifth place by Bill Lunde, Marc Leishman and Colt Knost, who have all won this year on the Nationwide Tour.
Hunter Haas, No. 26 on the money list, No. 33 Matthew Every, No. 37 Bryan DeCorso and No. 50 Gavin Coles are tied for ninth at minus-three. They were joined there by Greg Owen, Matt Bettencourt, Rick Price and Peter Tomasulo.
Chris Tidland, who is 25th on the money list, fought back from an opening triple-bogey top post an even-par 71 and he is tied for 32nd. Tidland also carded a bogey, a double-bogey, two birdies and two eagles.
<< Atlanta recalls Wolves' defenseman Valabik
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Thrashers have recalled defenseman
Boris Valabik from their American Hockey League affiliate, the Chicago Wolves,
it was announced on Thursday.
The 22-year-old has notched a goal and two assists
<< Burrell, Moyer, Penny file for free agency
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Philadelphia outfielder Pat Burrell and
pitcher Jamie Moyer, as well as Dodgers pitcher Brad Penny all filed for free
agency on Thursday.
Burrell, 32, played in 157 games for the World Series-winnin
<< Slumping Jags hope to get back on track vs. lousy Lions
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's safe to say that the Jacksonville Jaguars are
suffering through a meltdown this season after going deep into the playoffs a
year ago. The team was pegged by some insiders to supplant mighty Indianapolis
in the AFC South
<< Matteson tops crowded leaderboard in Disney World
Lake Buena Vista, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Troy Matteson fired a nine-under 63
Thursday to grab a one-stroke lead after the opening round of the Children's
Miracle Network Classic.
Matteson's 63 came on the Palm Course at the Walt Disney W
Houston LB Diles out for season >>
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Houston Texans linebacker Zac Diles will miss
the remainder of the season after breaking his leg in the team's practice on
Wednesday.
Diles, who tallied 66 tackles and an interception in nine games this s
FCS Previews: Week 11 >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Here are the predictions for the top 25
games and other notable contests from week 10 of the FCS season.
THURSDAY NIGHT'S GAME
Howard (1-7,1-6 MEAC) at No. 19 South Carolina State (7-2, 6-0 MEAC), 7:30 p
NFL Inactives (Thursday, November 6, 2008) >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The following is a list of inactive players
for tonight's NFL game.
DENVER BRONCOS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS, 8:15 P.M. (ET)
Broncos - LB D.J. Williams, WR Glenn Martinez, WR Chad Jackson, DE Tim Crowder,
S M
Semin's late goals help Caps stun Hurricanes >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alexander Semin -- the other Alexander in a
dynamic Capitals duo -- scored a pair of goals in the final three minutes to
give Washington a stunning 3-2 victory over Southeast Division rival Carolina.
Semi
Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl Odds
Will he or won't he? Now that the Dallas Cowboys have a new head coach in Wade Phillips, the big question will be: Does Terrell Owens stay with the team.
Jerry Jones continues to suggest that Terrell Owens will remain with the team.
"I've said that he's back, he's here, he's under contract," Jones said. "In the interviews I've just been through (to hire a new coach), it was very clear to me how highly he's thought of and how much of an impact he had on our offensive success."
Just to be sure though, Terrell Owens cleared out his locker and removed his name plate.
Terrell Owens was among the Cowboys most productive players this past season, catching 85 passes for 1,180 yards and a league-best 13 touchdowns.
But T.O. is due a $3 million roster bonus in June, then a $5 million salary this season. Cutting him before then would save a lot of money and headaches.
Aside from the questions surrounding Terrell Owens, the oddsmakers at MySportsbook.com have concerns over starting quarterback Tony Romo's state of mind and whether he will remain a starting quarterback. It is also not known how players will adjust to new head coach, Wade Phillips.
Here are the football odds as seen at MySportsbook.com and subject to change after February 10, 2007 if not locked in prior to that date.
Arizona Cardinals 60-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Baltimore Ravens 15-1
Buffalo Bills 50-1
Carolina Panthers 18-1
Chicago Bears 10-1
Cincinnati Bengals 15-1
Cleveland Browns 100-1
Dallas Cowboys 15-1
Denver Broncos 15-1
Detroit Lions 100-1
Green Bay Packers 50-1
Houston Texans 100-1
Indianapolis Colts 6-1
Jacksonville Jaguars 30-1
Kansas City Chiefs 30-1
Miami Dolphins 40-1
Minnesota Vikings 75-1
New England Patriots 10-1
New Orleans Saints 18-1
New York Giants 20-1
New York Jets 30-1
Oakland Raiders 100-1
Philadelphia Eagles 18-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-1
Saint Louis Rams 60-1
San Diego Chargers 6-1
San Francisco 49ers 75-1
Seattle Seahawks 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccanneers 75-1
Tennessee Titans 40-1
Washington Redskins 50-1
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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