09/20/2008 - East Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Odds-on favorite Commentator easily out- classed six other competitors to take Saturday's $500,000 Massachusetts Handicap (MassCap) at Suffolk Downs. The MassCap is the second consecutive win for Commentator in the Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" program.
A two-time winner of the Whitney Handicap, Commentator stalked the pace set by 50-1 longshot Riversrunrylee in the 1 1/8 mile race. In the early going Cuba was running third and Won Awesome Dude was in fourth.
Up the backstretch Riversrunrylee still set the pace as the 1-9 favorite pressed the leader on the outside. On the turn for home Commentator, ridden by John Velazquez, took the lead and proceeded to run away from the competition.
Finishing 14 lengths back in second was Won Awesome Dude followed by Cuba and Dr. Pleasure in fourth. Rounding out the order of finish was Volcanic Force, Beck and Call, and Riversrunrylee.
The time for the 66th MassCap was 1:48.97 on a fast track.
Commentator, a seven-year-old gelding, is trained by Hall of Famer Nick Zito for Tracy Farmer. This summer Commentator captured his second Whitney Handicap at Saratoga to go along with his 2005 victory. The Whitney victory in July guaranteed Commentator a spot in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita on October 25.
"I've had a great number of horses in my life and he has a bit of Seabiscuit in him," Farmer said. "He understands what he is supposed to do. He's just a special horse. It's almost like he's my child. He's someone that keeps coming back and running.
"He is one of my favorite horses of all time, and he's had setbacks of several different minor problems that have kept him from running, but he's always come back fine."
The MassCap win was worth $300,000 and is Commentator's 13th career victory in 20 starts. He now has lifetime earning's of more than $1.84 million.
Also this year Commentator won the Richter Scale Handicap at Gulfstream Park and was second to Divine Park in the Met Mile Handicap at Belmont Park on Memorial Day.
Owner Tracy Farmer isn't sure if the gelding will have another start this year or be retired soon.
"He'll either run or this may be his last race at this age. Who knows? We certainly are not going to run him if he doesn't want to run and if he's not in winning form, and having said that, I have no idea if he's going to run until he's 10 or if this is his last race."
Commentator returned $2.20, $2.20 and $2.20. Won Awesome Dude paid $4.60 and $3.00, and Cuba paid $2.80 to show.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
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Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
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Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
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